However, in our base-case outlook, the growing adoption of EVs and the need for EV batteries with higher energy densities will see the demand for lithium increase more than threefold between 20, to 669 kilotons lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), the industry standard for measuring lithium volumes, from 214 kilotons LCE. Historically, both the lithium and cobalt markets have been driven by battery demand, primarily from consumer electronics, representing 40 percent and 25 percent of demand, respectively, in 2017.
Any major changes in these areas might result in a vastly different outlook.
Although we believe these assumptions to have a high likelihood of occurring, government policies, battery-technology innovations, and industry economics will affect how the industry evolves. Our base-case analysis rests on a set of assumptions regarding global EV-demand growth and battery chemistries the industry will adopt. In this article, extracted from that report, we consider the supply and demand dynamics for lithium and cobalt and consider how players might respond. We explore these themes in depth in a new report, Lithium and cobalt -a tale of two commodities. For all players, there is a growing imperative to understand the complexities and dynamics of this rapidly changing market and to ensure that their strategies are robust in the face of uncertainty. The strategic response needed will likely differ across industry players such as automotive OEMs, battery manufacturers, mining and refining companies, and financial investors. Please email us at: recent concerns regarding the future of the raw-material supply availability for batteries and the impact of rising commodity prices on battery production costs have highlighted risks that might create divergent futures for these two commodities. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website.
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